Adaptation Network
building resilience in a changing climate

Fifth Occasional Newsletter
Spring 2008




Welcome!

Change in Leadership
Beth Raps

I have a poster in my kitchen that reads "Put the message in the hands of the people and move on." I am! This is my last editorial in the newsletter as co-director, this last is to announce that Lynne Carter is taking over directorship of the Network. I am moving into a support role to Lynne's leadership. It is a joy to have put the message in the hands of the (right) people and then to move on! I will continue assisting with raising funds for the Network, and editing the newsletter this year along with our web whizzes Matthew Carlstroem and Michael Neely who turn it into something beautiful to read online.


Costs of Adaptation
Lynne Carter

I have been waiting for quite a while for one major issue to emerge that I see as related to climate change and the costs of adaptation. Now it has finally reared its head. It is the issue of responsibility.

What do I mean? "Responsibility" in adaptation to climate change is similar to the way we view responsibility with regard to smoking and lung cancer. For a very long time people felt that there was a relationship between smoking and lung cancer but it was difficult to prove. There was also a concerted effort to obfuscate the relationship by the tobacco companies.

In climate change, we have seen oil and gas interests try to obfuscate and confuse responsibility for climatic changes. Their efforts are only now beginning to crumble. According to the Anchorage Daily News of February 26, 2008, the first global warming lawsuit has been filed in federal district court by both the City of Kivalina and the Native Village of Kivalina (a federally recognized tribe). It is against nine oil companies, fourteen electric power companies and one coal company. The complaint states: "This is a suit to recover damages from global warming caused by defendants' actions."

Kivalina is one of at least a half-dozen villages on Alaska's coast suffering severe erosion. This erosion is mostly related to late fall freezing of ice that allows storms to batter the coasts where these villages are located. The villages of Kivalina, Shishmaref, Unalakleet, and Newtok, among others, were once protected from these tidal surges by sea ice-but now the land is being eroded away. The costs of seawall improvements are estimated in the range of $10-20 million and relocation costs for Kivalina alone are estimated in the range of $100 million.

The questions asked by this lawsuit are "Who is going to pay?" and "Where is the money going to come from to save these villages?"

This is an interesting development in adaptation to climate change. While I am not a lawyer, I will be watching the outcome of this lawsuit and the precedent that it will set in terms of how responsibility is assessed for costs of adapting to climate changes that may have been more easily avoided in the past than they are now and than they will be in the future.





Comments Needed ASAP!:
National Water Program Strategy: Response to Climate Change



The Adaptation Network encourages you, right now, to submit comments to the EPA on how it plans to respond to water issues in light of climate change. All comments are due by May 27. Find the draft strategy plans at http://www.epa.gov/water/climatechange and respond today! Background: The EPA's draft document represents the agency's initial efforts to identify potential impacts of climate change for clean water and drinking water programs and define actions to respond to these impacts. The draft strategy proposes 46 specific actions that EPA will take to respond to climate change. Only those actions which can be initiated in fiscal year 2008 or 2009 with an assumption of level funding are included in the draft strategy.




Learning from Others' Experiences


At times the Network has the opportunity to speak with climate change adapters. We can gain valuable lessons learned and words of experience from these leaders. In this issue, we describe the raising of the Deer Island Sewage Treatment Plant in Boston, and what an intelligent adaptation it was.

When the Deer Island Sewage Treatment Plant was being planned in the late 1980s, projections were that sea level was rising and would continue to rise due to global warming. Looking at the projections available at that time a plausible numerical value related to the projected rise was chosen for the target date of 2050, the projected lifetime of the plant. Planners decided to raise the plant 1.9 feet to accommodate at least the amount of rise projected for the lifetime of the facility.

The two things that are important to me from the Deer Island experience are:

  1. The group's recognition that the future will be different from the past and that they should plan for the future. To me this is one of the most important messages that needs to be incorporated into thinking and planning; too often we use the historical climate of the past to plan future actions.
  2. Assessing and taking the actions that would be more difficult and expensive to incorporate at a later date. While it is difficult to knowingly increase an expenditure, it is sometimes the prudent course and can actually save a great deal of cost and effort in the long run. For example, at Deer Island's plant, spending money raising the plant was far cheaper than the projected cost of adding pumps later, once sea level had risen so far as to require them. Since there was plenty of fill on the island, this was a cost-effective decision. On the other hand, planners decided not to plan to armor the island at the same time, since this could be done later and at a relatively small cost.

The Network sincerely thanks Stephen Estes-Smargiassi, Director of Planning, Massachusetts Water Resources Authority, Boston, MA. (617) 788-4303, email: Stephen.Estes-Smargiassi@mwra.state.ma.us for discussing these important considerations in depth with us.





Adaptation Network News


The Town of Sandwich, MA has included climate change in the development of the town's new comprehensive plan. The plans calls for the development of a mitigation plan and an adaptation plan for the town. This change in the town plan follows attendance at the December 2007 meeting called by the Waquoit Bay Estuarine Research Reserve entitled: Climate Change and Cape Cod: Coastal Impacts and Adaptation Strategies, at which Adaptation Network Director Lynne Carter spoke on the need for towns to include adaptation planning in comprehensive plans. Kudos to Town Planner Bob Fultz for looking forward to better protect and prepare his town for coming changes.

The Adaptation Network: Building Resilience in a Changing Climate is a nonprofit, tax-exempt project of the Earth Island Institute. For more information on Earth Island, see www.earthisland.org. We are supported by caring people like you. You can make a gift to support us easily through our website or by mailing a check to

PO Box 117, Berkeley Springs, WV 25411

Make checks out to: Earth Island Institute, with "for the Adaptation Network" clearly indicated in the memo section of the check. If you'd like to make an inkind gift to the Adaptation Network, airline credits are always useful and welcomed! Gifts "in honor of" are a wonderful way to reduce "stuff" and add meaning to your birthday, anniversary, and other giving-tax-deductibly! Contact Beth Raps to do this at bethraps@earthlink.net.

Congratulations to Josh Foster, for his new appointment as the Adaptation Program Manager at the nonprofit organization Center for Clean Air Policy (CCAP)! Josh was formerly Program Coordinator for the Transition of Research Applications to Climate Services (TRACS) Program, at the federal agency NOAA.

The Connecticut General Assembly passed a bill entitled: AN ACT CONCERNING CONNECTICUT GLOBAL WARMING SOLUTIONS on April 30, 2008. The bill includes a specific section (section 7) focused on planning for impacts (adaptation).





New Resources in Adaptation and...

Alaska

The Governor of the State of Alaska is developing an executive sub-cabinet entirely devoted to climate change divided into advisory and technical work groups that will recommend actions. Work groups will hold public forums, and committees will "represent a full spectrum of views and concerns" around each of the main issues. One exciting example: "the Adaptation Advisory Work Group will assess options to help communities, businesses and citizens take action to prevent foreseeable impacts caused by a changing climate; or if impacts are not preventable, propose actions to best adapt to those impacts." Yes!! For copies of documents and to cheer (and emulate) Alaska's progress, see the State's climate change web site: www.climatechange.alaska.gov.


Birds

We note the publication of Birds on the Move: A Climatic Atlas of European Breeding Birds. In addition to showing projections of range changes for many European birds, the atlas also suggests actions (adaptations) that can be undertaken to assist movement of species into new ranges and to build resilience in bird populations. For an overview brochure or to order, see: www.rspb.org/news/details.asp?id=tcm:9-180304.


Business

The Pew Center on Global Climate Change's Adapting to Climate Change: A Business Approach is "a climate risk screening framework" (p. 29) to help businesses plan adaptation strategies using three case studies. See www.pewclimate.org/publications. While the report concludes that not every company needs to take immediate action, all need to be aware of risks and vulnerabilities in their actual physical structures as well as in their supply chains and customer bases.


Climate Prediction

Climatologist Kevin Trenberth told the Adaptation Network about a new and useful paper he has posted to his website: www.cgd.ucar.edu/cas/trenbert.html. The paper was published in January's WMO Bulletin and is titled "Observational Needs for Climate Prediction and Adaptation."


Transportation

From the United States' Climate Change Science Program (CCSP)'s Assessment series: Impacts of Climate Change and Variability on Transportation Systems and Infrastructure: Gulf Coast Study, Phase I. The first of this three-phase series assesses Gulf Coast transportation system vulnerabilities to potential changes in weather patterns and related impacts, based on 21 simulation models and a range of emissions scenarios. Results suggest that potential changes in climate over the next 50 - 100 years could disrupt transportation services in the region: 27% of major roads, nine percent of rail lines, and 72 % of ports in the area are at or below four feet above sea level. The report suggests including in future transportation planning and development: exposure to climate stressors, vulnerability, resilience, and adaptation. It also suggests using a new planning approach based on "probabilities of potential impacts." To download the document go to: www.climatescience.gov/Library/sap/sap4-7/final-report/.

From the US Department of Transportation's (DOT's) Center for Climate Change and Environmental Forecasting: Potential Impacts of Global Sea Level Rise on Transportation Infrastructure, Phase 1, The District of Columbia, Maryland, North Carolina and Virginia. This document estimates the impacts of sea level rise on East Coast transportation systems to allow development of "a plan to address the potential impacts of sea level rise" and to provide information on the location and quantity of infrastructure that could be affected. This document notes the average rate of coastal erosion along with varying estimates of sea level rise over the next 50 - 100 years could result in the necessity of protecting important low-lying elements of the transportation system. To download this document, go to: http://climate.dot.gov/publications/potential_impacts_of_global_sea_level_rise/index.html. Phase 2 will be about New York, New Jersey, Pennsylvania, Delaware, South Carolina, Georgia, and the Atlantic Coast of Florida.



Useful Models

Adaptation Planning - What U.S. States and Localities are Doing is published by the Pew Center on Global Climate Change www.pewclimate.org/publications to survey adaptation plans and implementation around the U.S. The 33 state plans examined generally only make mention of adaptation without specific recommendations for action and focus on mitigation and expected impacts. The paper offers information about the few states that do have specific adaptation plans in place or in progress, along with websites for updates and more details.

Links to documents on adaptation underway or planned in the U.S. can be found on the Adaptation Network's website, www.adaptationnetwork.org. These documents are Preparing for Climate Change: A Guidebook for Local, Regional, and State Governments by the Climate Impacts Group, ICLEI, and King County, Washington; A Survey of Climate Change Adaptation Planning by the Heinz Center, and also Lynne Carter's Powerpoint presentation, "Adaptation: It's Just Better Planning."

Environment Canada's Adaptation and Impacts Research Division has released the first edition of its Compendium of Adaptation Models for Climate Change. Contact: don.maciver@ec.gc.ca. It selects 35 adaptation models and summarizes them. Another useful feature of the Compendium is its categorization of adaptation models into four groups: impact-centered models (ICMs); adaptation-centered models (ACMs); evaluation models; and optimization models.



Announcements


The Utne Reader recently gave one of its 2007 Independent Press Awards to the beautifully produced controversy-exploring magazine of our fiscal sponsor the Earth Island Institute. This magazine is entitled the Earth Island Journal and you can subscribe to it very inexpensively through the Adaptation Network. Contact Beth Raps at bethraps@earthlink.net to find out how!



We note the inaugural issue of No Regrets, a newsletter on adaptation planning and risk assessment published by Indigo Development: www.indigodev.com.



The British economist Lord Stern, whose report on climate change, the Stern Review, helped galvanize people around the world when it was published 18 months ago, has admitted that the situation is far worse than the assumptions that formed the basis of his ground-breaking report: see
www.independent.co.uk/news/business/news/stern-warns-that-climate-change-is-far-worse-than-2006-estimate-810488.html



The UK Climate Impacts Program offers a monthly summary of recent climate change research called the UK Climate Digest. Find most recent summaries plus archived issues on the UKCIP website: www.ukcip.org.uk.




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published Spring 002008 by the Adaptation Network
www.adaptationnetwork.org